Storms with destructive winds possible in COLUMBIA REGION area late Thursday

“Thunderstorms will intensify in coverage and intensity this afternoon and spread over the hours area,” writes the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center. “The strongest cells and lines will represent risk of destructive gusts of wind and a tornado or two.”

In the DC area, we may see gusty rains and storms start intensify around 17:00 and continue intermittently until the evening. They may be hit or skip.

Seeing a severe thunderstorm means conditions are favorable. for strong storm, but not guarantee and what are you should Be carefull. If a severe thunderstorm (or tornado) warning issued, then a thunderstorm is inevitable for is yours location and you should seek shelter immediately.

weather service also increased regionstorm risk level from “insignificant” (level 2 out of 5) to “reinforced” (level 3).

To our south developing storms already result in tornado warnings on west and north side of Richmond. At the moment we have not seen any reports of confirmed tornado or damage.

Please note that during our discussion below indicates that the strongest storms probable later that evening, as the cold front passes, showers and thunderstorms develop ahead of it can be strong this afternoon and evening and cause destructive gusts of wind and possibly a brief tornado.

We will post updates seriously. weather moves in area.

Original article from 13:20

After the outbreak of serious weather in south on Wednesday to early Thursday, cold front responsible for dangerous storms are approaching the east coast. When the front collides with the soft, wet air moving north, strong to strong thunderstorms may erupt in Washington region, basically this evening and tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has posted many of eastern United States in small risk zone for serious thunderstorms. This is level 2 out of five on threat severity scale.

That main a threat with any storms will be destructive winds, although one or two short-lived tornadoes will not. out of question. This possible that showers and storms pass through parts of in area without much fanfare. Although severe storms sure thing would be reasonable remain weather in the know until late at night.

upcoming of Any thunderstorms strong wind from the south – gusts up up to 50 mph – suggested wind advisory for in region until 20:00

“Gusty winds could blow over loose objects,” the Met Office wrote. “Single damage to trees and several power shutdowns can result”.

• Interstate 81: 4:00 pm to 8:00 pm.
• Germantown/Dulles/Warrenton: 6:00 pm to 10:00 pm.
• Interstate 95 and Beltway area: 8 pm and midnight.
• Southern Maryland – Annapolis: 21:00 and 01:00.

Note that intermittent gusty downpour possible in front of the main line of showers and storms late this evening.

Everything clear: midnight west of on the Beltway, around 1:00 am on the Beltway, and at 2:00 am near the Chesapeake Bay.

• High (2-in-3) chance of: Gusty wind (30 to 50 mph), intermittent showers.
• Medium (1-in-3) chance of: destructive wind (50 to 65 mph).
• Small (1-in-10 or less) chance of: Brief tornado, small hail, destructive winds (over 65 mph), lightning, flood.

Precipitation potential: Average 0.25 to 0.5 inches; local sums up up to 1 inch or so possible.

Looking at the daily forecast map, it is clear that a warm front has passed through our region last night, proclaiming in wind from the south and softer and wetter air weight. This front is associated with a deepening of low pressure system north of Great Lakes. Our region I will remain in the warm sector of this storm during the day and evening as a cold front approaches from the Ohio Valley.

At the upper levels, a powerful trough of low pressure approaching the East Coast. Climb of air strengthening expected in DC area as the trough is strengthened. With influx of southern moisture and rising air waves of showers will evolve and pass our region every other day and evening.

Our concern shifts to the early evening when the front draws near and pocket of unstable air develops just along it. Early morning weather hot air balloon at dulles airport shows that the atmosphere for moment is quite stable and does not contribute to deep thunderstorms. But, with arrival of softer air from the south (and cooling of average levels by the approaching trough), some measure of Instability is expected to develop in at least the average atmosphere by early evening.

Extensive cloud cover during the day will likely prevent the strong March sun from destabilizing the atmosphere to any great extent.

While instability may be somewhat absent in the deep layer, the low-level wind fields are exceptionally strong and ideally configured so that any deeper cells can achieve rotation. A look at these very strong winds about a mile above the surface is shown below; note that they in in range of 70+ mph.

Even with smaller convective clouds (without significant lightning and thunder), we concerned what downdrafts in the clouds can bring down explosions of strong wind in locally destructive gusts of wind. Severe wind shear (change in speed as well as direction with height) can also contribute to transient, rotating storm cells with possibility of a short-lived tornado or two.

Two images below present radar images as simulated various forecast models. in firstNAM high resolution model suggests a squall line, with built-in strong and heavy cells, will pass through area between 22:00 and 01:00

• That second modeling (HRRR model) represents an earlier scenario, with line of storms crossing our region between 8 and 11 pm

Capital Weather Gang will remain on top of this scenario in a day and post updated if a severe thunderstorm warning is issued and any local warnings are generated.