JPMorgan thinks there’s a buying opportunity in regional bank Valley National. The bank upgraded Valley National Bancorp to overweight from neutral Monday with a $10 per share price target. JPMorgan’s forecast implies 25% upside from the stock’s $8 close on Friday.

Reasons for Upgrade

Analyst Steven Alexopoulos noted that Valley National’s exposure to the commercial real estate market is reasonably below peers which could shield the firm from loan headwinds. “Even though the industry is currently seeing stress in the CMBS loan market for office CRE, Valley’s office loan exposure is different and granular with the average loans size of $2.2mm (below peers at $3.1mm and well below CMBS loans that were reported to have defaulted),” Alexopoulos said. The analyst added that, “Given the focus of the bank on its own local suburban office markets (rather than downtown city centers) and on developing relationships with borrowers, it is common for the bank to ask for personal guarantees (something not common for CMBS loans) which is a valuable tool to bring borrowers to the table in the situation of stress.”

Stock Performance

Valley National shares have tanked more than 29% in 2023. The stock dropped with the broader regional banking space after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this year. VLY YTD mountain VLY in 2023 — AsumeTech’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.