Democrats and 2022 midterms: ‘It’s going to be a terrible cycle’

Not everyone is so pessimistic. But for those tasked with solving the riddle of the midterm Democrats, the question is increasingly: how many seats can they salvage? Senate control is deadlocked 50-50, and Democrats are hang on to a five-seat majority in the House. Few Democratic strategists expect to retain the House, but many remain hopeful about the Senate, where candidates have much more room to burnish their own independent brands.

When Jim Kessler, executive vice president for policy at Third Way, a center-left think tank, recently reviewed past midterms for a presentation to Democratic strategists and Hill Democrats, he found that the ruling party typically lost about 10 percentage points during the holidays. – cyclical elections.

It suggested two main takeaways, he said. First, the current struggles of the Democratic Party are quite ordinary by historical standards. And second, even candidates in politically safe blue zones need to be prepared for tough campaigns.

“If you are a district that is Biden plus 12 or less” — meaning the president won the House district in question by that many percentage points in 2020 — “you have to run like you lose,” a said Kessler.

Wealthy Silicon Valley donors are turning to roles they have traditionally overlooked: attorneys general, governors and secretaries of state in parts of the country that could prove crucial to the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.

In Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, Republican candidates aligned with Donald Trump have challenged the 2020 election results, promoting questionable “audits” and conspiracy theories about voting machines. The widespread fear among donors is that, if these Trump allies are elected, they will find illegitimate ways to secure his return to power in 2024.

As the prospects for Democrats in Washington look bleak, Mehlhorn advises donors to look for opportunities to prevent and disrupt full Republican control in those states.